In this paper, we argue for representing networks as a bag of {\it triangular motifs}, particularly for important network problems that current model-based approaches handle poorly due to computational bottlenecks incurred by using edge representations. Such approaches require both 1-edges and 0-edges (missing edges) to be provided as input, and as a consequence, approximate inference algorithms for these models usually require \Omega(N 2) time per iteration, precluding their application to larger real-world networks. In contrast, triangular modeling requires less computation, while providing equivalent or better inference quality. A triangular motif is a vertex triple containing 2 or 3 edges, and the number of such motifs is \Theta(\sum_{i}D_{i} {2}) (where D_i is the degree of vertex i), which is much smaller than N 2 for low-maximum-degree networks. Using this representation, we develop a novel mixed-membership network model and approximate inference algorithm suitable for large networks with low max-degree.

In this paper, we argue for representing networks as a bag of {\it triangular motifs}, particularly for important network problems that current model-based approaches handle poorly due to computational bottlenecks incurred by using edge representations. Such approaches require both 1-edges and 0-edges (missing edges) to be provided as input, and as a consequence, approximate inference algorithms for these models usually require $\Omega(N 2)$ time per iteration, precluding their application to larger real-world networks. In contrast, triangular modeling requires less computation, while providing equivalent or better inference quality. A triangular motif is a vertex triple containing 2 or 3 edges, and the number of such motifs is $\Theta(\sum_{i}D_{i} {2})$ (where $D_i$ is the degree of vertex $i$), which is much smaller than $N 2$ for low-maximum-degree networks. Using this representation, we develop a novel mixed-membership network model and approximate inference algorithm suitable for large networks with low max-degree.

Prediction of the future trajectory of a disease is an important challenge for personalized medicine and population health management. However, many complex chronic diseases exhibit large degrees of heterogeneity, and furthermore there is not always a single readily available biomarker to quantify disease severity. Even when such a clinical variable exists, there are often additional related biomarkers routinely measured for patients that may better inform the predictions of their future disease state. To this end, we propose a novel probabilistic generative model for multivariate longitudinal data that captures dependencies between multivariate trajectories. We use a Gaussian process based regression model for each individual trajectory, and build off ideas from latent class models to induce dependence between their mean functions. We fit our method using a scalable variational inference algorithm to a large dataset of longitudinal electronic patient health records, and find that it improves dynamic predictions compared to a recent state of the art method. Our local accountable care organization then uses the model predictions during chart reviews of high risk patients with chronic kidney disease.